Many people remember Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote in 2016 then losing the election to the current President by an Electoral College margin of 306-232. When the race, this year, was first called for Joe Biden; democratic pundits were critical of the margin not being what was expected and not substantiating a referendum.
Well, as the votes are continuing to be tallied, Biden's vote margin is ever increasing. He is approaching what many believe to be landslide proportions.
As of this morning, November 19, 2020, Biden's margin of victory in the National Popular Vote Count has swelled to 5,912,048. The votes left to be counted, especially from where the votes are being counted, has resulted in national voting experts forecasting Biden's final margin of victory will easily exceed 6-Million, ultimately.
So, what does a six-million vote difference actually say? How monumental is that exactly? In this article we will attempt to tell you.
The U.S. Elections Project estimates that when the tally is complete, about 158.7 million Americans will have voted for President. Six-million of those votes are yet to be counted, and we know from where they are coming.
More than half (3.3 million) are located in just five blue states—California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. By contrast, the five largest red states account for only a few hundred thousand outstanding ballots.
There is good reason to believe the remaining uncounted ballots will strongly favor Joe Biden over President Trump. If so, Biden will likely achieve a popular vote edge of at least 6 million votes, with a winning margin of 4 percent.
In the Electoral College, if the current returns hold up through the vote count and court challenges, Biden will take back the Blue Wall states—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, along with two southern tier states—Georgia and Arizona. Neither Georgia nor Arizona have tipped toward the Democrats since the '90s.
Biden’s estimated final vote margin would place him right in the middle of the outcomes since 1988—worse than four elections, better than four others. He would finish slightly ahead of Barack Obama’s successful reelection campaign in 2012.
Biden's likely haul of 306 electoral votes would exceed George W. Bush’s total in both 2000 and 2004. It would tie the number of Electoral Votes Donald Trump won four years ago which Trump termed, back then, one of the largest landslides in presidential election history, which (of course) was demonstrably false.
By the standards of the past three decades, Joe Biden won a substantial though not overwhelming victory. It is reasonable to ask why he didn’t do even better.
As we’ve seen, we seem to be in a period of history where landslides are hard to achieve. Democrats should reserve their disappointment for their party’s performance in the House, Senate, and state legislative contests they expected to win.
Joe Biden’s victory is solid given the period of history in which we are living. A solid victory over an incumbent, sitting President; well, that is somewhat of a referendum, wouldn't you agree?